The False Promise of a “Burnham Bounce”

The recent Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election has been cited as evidence that Labour’s fortunes are rising under new leader Andy Burnham. According to opinion polls, Labour has enjoyed a significant boost in popularity since Burnham took the reins. However, this bounce may not be as significant as it seems.

Labour won the by-election convincingly with 47% of the first preference vote, but this result is hardly a resounding endorsement of Burnham’s leadership. In fact, Andy Burnham secured 63% in the last mayoral contest just before the 2024 general election – a fact that suggests his own personal popularity has taken a hit.

Labour’s victory should be seen in context: Reform, Burnham’s main challenger, is still struggling to shake off allegations of financial impropriety and Farage’s decision to stand down as leader. As a result, Reform’s poll ratings have plummeted from 27% to a low of 24%. The party’s troubles have undoubtedly contributed to Labour’s modest gains.

The “bounce” in Burnham’s popularity is more a result of the Conservative Party’s internal divisions and Reform’s own self-inflicted wounds than any genuine surge in support for Labour. Labour’s poll average remains the lowest for any newly minted mid-term PM, while the party is still well adrift in the polls.

A closer examination of the data reveals that since Burnham took over, Labour has managed to claw back voters from smaller parties such as the Greens and Liberal Democrats. However, this has come at a cost: the Greens have suffered a two-point drop, with their support now standing at 11% – four points adrift of where it was when Sir Keir announced his resignation.

Despite Labour’s gains, Burnham’s leadership still faces significant challenges. His party needs to win back working-class pro-Brexit voters who deserted Labour in droves after the 2024 general election. The signs are far from encouraging: despite Labour’s gains, Reform is still drawing support away from the Conservatives at an alarming rate.

In reality, while Labour’s “Burnham bounce” may be real, it’s hardly a game-changer. To put his party on course for victory, Burnham needs to deliver more than just a short-term boost in popularity – he needs to fundamentally transform Labour’s electoral strategy and win back the voters who have abandoned him.

The question now is whether Burnham has what it takes to achieve this transformation. As the party gears up for the next general election, one thing is clear: the stakes are higher than ever before. Will Burnham rise to the challenge, or will his “bounce” prove to be nothing more than a brief flicker of hope? Only time will tell.